Observation
A first piece of evidence creates a question worth following. Our McCaffrey briefing flags unresolved availability in a dated source. It does not confirm a new injury or a lasting role change.
Developing and Established
Developing means a view is gaining support from repeated relevant evidence. Established means sustained evidence supports it across the conditions that matter. These are reasoning states, not a score calculated from the number of articles.
Keep the counterexample
A counterexample is evidence that challenges the view. Keep it visible instead of discarding it. Ask whether it points to a temporary circumstance, a boundary on the explanation, or a reason to revise the explanation.
Watch without inventing certainty
Ask what new information would distinguish the competing explanations. In the availability example, confirmed participation would resolve a different question from how the player is subsequently used.
Follow a real example
Rushing and receiving are two different routes to involvement. Watch whether each back stays involved when the game shifts toward passing.
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